Half a Century of Darkness: The Great Slump — The Deepest Credit Crunch in British History

 Chapter One: The Great Slump (c. 1430–1480/1490)

The deepest, most pervasive, and longest-lasting medieval depression in British economic history

Introduction: A “credit crunch” that consumed half a century

In the mid-fifteenth century, England faced an economic downturn that modern economic historians term the “Great Slump” or the “mid-fifteenth-century depression.”

This downturn began in Northern England in the 1430s, spread to the south in the 1440s, and true recovery did not arrive until the 1480s; the period spanned approximately 50–60 years.

Economic historian John Hatcher, in his renowned work “The Great Slump of the Mid-Fifteenth Century” (published in *Progress and Problems in Medieval England: Essays in Honour of Edward Miller*, Cambridge University Press, 1996), explicitly described it as “one of the deepest, most pervasive and enduring of all depressions.”

Key Causes: Bullion famine, weather, war, and credit contraction

The Great Bullion Famine (Global shortage of silver)

Silver mines in Europe began to run dry. China’s Ming Dynasty adopted a silver-based currency after 1368, causing European silver to flow eastward. Peter Spufford (*Money and its Use in Medieval Europe*, Cambridge University Press, 1988) writes: “By the early fifteenth century, England is lucky to have as much silver as we do, because there was about a tenth of the amount there had been a hundred years previously.”

Data: In 1351, silver coinage per capita stood at approximately 56 pence; by 1422, it had fallen to just 13 pence—less than 24 percent of the level seen 70 years earlier.

Extreme weather and agricultural crisis (Spörer Solar Minimum)

The harsh winters of the 1430s marked the onset of Europe’s Spörer Solar Minimum. Research published in the *Economic History Review* in 2026... Research (such as "Extreme weather and economic crisis in the 1430s in England…") demonstrated on a national scale that a sharp contraction in economic activity occurred between 1436 and 1441, marking the onset of the "Great Slump." Crops failed, livestock diseases spread, and food prices rose.

War and trade disruptions

The final phase of the Hundred Years’ War, along with trade wars involving Spain and the Hanseatic League, shut down English export routes. Textile exports (England’s primary export commodity) plummeted by 35 percent over four years in the late 1440s; in some areas of the southwest, the decline reached 90 percent.

Credit crunch

Matthew F. Stevens’ research paper, "London creditors and the fifteenth-century depression" (*Economic History Review*, Vol. 69, 2016), is based on an analysis of approximately 2,500 London lawsuits (held at The National Archives).

Faced with a shortage of coinage, London merchant-creditors adopted a strategy of "pure equilibrium credit rationing."

Between 1400 and 1429, the average value of credit extended on the sale of goods was merely 1.6 times that of cash loans.

Terms requiring payment "on request" rose from 15 percent around 1400 to 82 percent in the 1430s, eventually exceeding 90 percent.

This serves as the clearest medieval example of a modern "credit crunch."

Contemporary evidence (not newspapers, but chronicles, parliamentary petitions, and manorial accounts)

Modern newspapers did not exist in the fifteenth century; evidence comes from the following sources:

Parliamentary petitions: Throughout the 1420s–1460s, frequent complaints were lodged in Parliament stating that trade had stalled due to a "severe shortage of coinage."

Manorial accounts and court rolls: The land market remained stagnant for decades; rents fell, profits declined, and many holdings lay vacant.

City of London records and guild accounts: Commercial transactions were cut in half.

Jack Cade’s Rebellion (1450): The burden of economic downturn and taxes ignited a rebellion in Kent and the southeast; historians view this as a direct social consequence of the economic crisis.

The early stages of the Wars of the Roses are also linked to this prolonged economic pressure.

Impact and Recovery

Prices fell, profits shrank, and both urban and rural economies remained sluggish.

Merchants sought access to bullion and secure credit by forming large trading networks and "conglomerates."

Signs of clear recovery emerged in the 1470s and strengthened in the 1480s with the onset of the Tudor era (Henry VII).

Key Books and Research Papers — Highlights

John Hatcher (1996): “The Great Slump of the Mid-Fifteenth Century” — This chapter is considered a cornerstone of the subject.

Peter Spufford (1988): *Money and its Use in Medieval Europe* — The most authoritative European study on the bullion famine.

Matthew F. Stevens (2016): *Economic History Review* — Empirical research based on London lenders.

Work by Pamela Nightingale: Accounts of the London ironmonger Gilbert Maghfeld reveal that transactions had already halved by the 1390s.

2026 *Economic History Review* research: Links weather patterns to the onset of the Great Slump in the 1430s.

Conclusion

The Great Slump was not merely the result of crop failure or war. It was an explosive combination of monetary scarcity, climatic shocks, trade disruptions, and credit contraction. In the words of John Hatcher, it was the "deepest, most pervasive and enduring" recession. Modern economists regard it as the first large-scale historical precedent for a "credit crunch."